Johnson & Johnson

An Analyst's First Look

Five numbers professional analysts usually check before anything else. Tap a card to jump to that line in the tables below.

Earnings vs. Analyst Estimates

Grew revenue year over year in 8 of 8 recent quarters (growth swung by about 2 points quarter to quarter); beat consensus in 7 of 8, surprises narrowing.

A quick read on how consistently recent quarters grew and how often reported results cleared analyst consensus — a look back at the track record, not a forecast.

Next scheduled earnings report: 2026-07-15

Each chip is one reported quarter: whether earnings per share came in above ("Beat"), below ("Miss"), or in line with the average analyst estimate at the time, and by what percentage. This is a historical record of past reports, not an indicator of future results.

Financial Statement Vertical Analysis (3-Year Ratio Summary)

Calculates structural allocation and relative weights. Balance Sheet items are scaled against Total Assets; Income Statement items are scaled against Total Revenues.

Key Financial Ratio Categorization

Product & Service Quality

Ecosystem Summary: JNJ operates through two primary segments: Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The company focuses on complex pharmaceuticals, surgical robotics, and orthopedic devices, moving away from consumer health products to prioritize high-growth, high-margin medical innovation.

Customer Feedback: Brand loyalty is high among healthcare providers who rely on JNJ’s consistent supply chain and clinical reliability. While patient-facing metrics are less direct, the company’s long-standing reputation for medical efficacy drives strong institutional trust and retention.

Competitor Grid: JNJ competes with major pharmaceutical and device firms like Pfizer, Roche, and Medtronic. Its primary advantage is a diversified portfolio that balances drug development risks with steady revenue from essential surgical and diagnostic medical equipment.

Pipeline Strategy: The company invests heavily in R&D, focusing on oncology, immunology, and digital surgery. This pipeline strategy aims to replace expiring drug patents with new, proprietary treatments, ensuring long-term viability in a competitive and evolving healthcare landscape.

Economic Moat Strength

Moat Rating: Wide Moat

J&J possesses a Wide Moat. Its combination of deep-seated intellectual property, high switching costs in medical devices, and massive scale provides a durable competitive advantage. Given the aging global population and the essential nature of its healthcare offerings, this moat is expected to remain robust and defensible over the next 10 to 20 years.

Moat Sub-elements:

Industry & SWOT Analysis

Definition: Johnson & Johnson operates in the Healthcare sector, specifically within the Drug Manufacturers - General industry. It focuses on two primary pillars: Innovative Medicine (pharmaceuticals) and MedTech (medical devices and surgical solutions).

Market Positioning: JNJ is a global leader in healthcare, competing with major firms like Pfizer, Merck, and Medtronic. It differentiates itself through a diversified business model that spans both complex pharmaceutical development and high-end medical technology.

Management & Corporate Governance

Background & Experience: JNJ is led by experienced pharmaceutical veterans who emphasize long-term stability. The leadership team maintains a reputation for conservative, steady management, prioritizing the company's historical legacy and its reputation as a reliable healthcare conglomerate.

Capital Allocation: Management maintains strong operating margins, often exceeding 25%. While they actively reduce share counts to boost value, the high debt-to-equity ratio suggests they are leveraging the balance sheet to fund operations and potential acquisitions.

Innovation Adaptability: The company relies heavily on R&D to maintain its competitive edge in a shifting healthcare landscape. Recent revenue fluctuations indicate the challenge of replacing aging product lines with new, high-growth medical breakthroughs in a crowded market.

Governance Risk: The primary risk involves managing massive, long-term legal liabilities that often plague the sector. Additionally, the lack of recent insider accumulation suggests management may not view the current stock price as an undervalued opportunity.

Shareholder Alignment (Lynch & Munger): Management shows a commitment to returning capital through buybacks, reducing the share count by nearly 6% over three years. However, the absence of insider accumulations and consistent reduction activity suggests a lack of aggressive internal conviction.

Insider Trading & Capital Allocation (Buybacks)

Valuation & Margin of Safety Analysis

Valuation Verdict: The stock is Overvalued. It trades at a 16.3% premium to peers on P/E and an 18.8% premium on P/S, despite inconsistent recent earnings growth. The combination of high valuation multiples and a lack of a margin of safety suggests the current price reflects excessive optimism regarding future performance.

Stock Categorization Framework

Asymmetric Risk-Reward Analysis

How it compares to peers

P/E (price-to-earnings) is the share price divided by earnings per share — a rough gauge of how expensive a stock is relative to its profits.

The "vs. peers" row shows how the company's valuation multiples compare to the peer median — green is a discount (cheaper than peers), red a premium (more expensive).

Cheap or dear vs. its own history

Middle-half range (25th–75th percentile)

Each quarter-end multiple pairs that quarter's trailing-twelve-month earnings or EBITDA with the period-end price; the marker is where today's multiple sits within that history. Shown for education, not as advice, and only when enough history is available.

Dividend

Annual dividend as a percentage of the share price — your cash return from dividends alone. Share of earnings paid out as dividends. Below ~60% generally leaves room to keep paying and growing it.

Technical Read (Synthesized Signal)

Robust bullish trend with elevated volatility approaching historical resistance levels.

Johnson & Johnson exhibits a structurally sound uptrend, characterized by a classic bullish moving average alignment and consistent price-volume support. The current momentum remains positive, as evidenced by the MACD positioning, though the proximity to the upper Bollinger Band and a high RSI reading suggest the asset is testing the upper limits of its recent range. This expansion in volatility, coupled with a significant extension above the medium-term moving averages, indicates a period of heightened market participation. While the trend remains firmly intact, the convergence of these indicators near 52-week highs reflects a market environment where price discovery is occurring at the top of the established channel. Consequently, the structural condition suggests a transition toward a consolidation phase following a period of sustained appreciation.

Market Structure

Historical Technical Price Chart (120-Day Daily view)

Volume Trend & Price-Volume Relationship

Volume Trend Profile: Steady Volume (10-day volume is within 20% of the 30-day average)

Price-Volume Correlation: Moderate Positive Correlation (0.16): Volume is slightly higher on up days, confirming general trend support.

Recent Volume Anomalies (Volume spikes > 2.5x 20-Day Average)

Sentiment Trends & News

Integrated Sentiment Verdict: The sentiment is firmly bullish. Media coverage frames JNJ as a reliable, steady performer that offers safety as investors rotate away from high-volatility sectors like AI.

Market psychology is currently optimistic, driven by a flight to quality. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and showing strong momentum, expectations remain positive for continued stability and steady performance.

Market Psychology Breakdown:

• News headlines sentiment: The sentiment is firmly bullish. Media coverage frames JNJ as a reliable, steady performer that offers safety as investors rotate away from high-volatility sectors like AI.
• Retail forum buzz: Retail investors view JNJ as a 'sleep-well-at-night' stock. Discussions focus on its status as a dividend aristocrat and its utility as a hedge against broader market instability.
• Key debate themes: Debates center on the balance between growth and income. Investors frequently discuss the trade-off between JNJ's slow-and-steady dividend growth versus the higher potential returns found in more aggressive, tech-focused sectors.

Recent Tracked News Headlines:

Macroeconomics & Economic Cycle

Economic Cycle alignment: JNJ is a classic defensive stock, meaning its performance is generally independent of the economic cycle. Because patients require medical care regardless of whether the economy is in expansion or recession, the company provides a reliable anchor for investors. Its current financial profile reflects a mature, stable business model that prioritizes consistent profitability over aggressive cyclical growth.

Impact of Macro Indicators:

GDP, Inflation, Interest Rates: As a healthcare provider, JNJ is largely insulated from GDP fluctuations due to the non-discretionary nature of its products. With $54.987B in total debt, the company is sensitive to interest rate shifts; however, its consistent operating margins above 22% suggest it maintains strong pricing power to offset inflationary cost pressures on raw materials and labor.

Policy & Regulations:

JNJ faces significant regulatory scrutiny regarding drug pricing legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which impacts long-term revenue projections for its pharmaceutical portfolio. Conversely, the company benefits from robust intellectual property protections and FDA approval pathways that create a high barrier to entry, effectively shielding its core medical device and therapeutic segments from generic competition.

Social & Demographic tailwinds:

JNJ operates primarily as a B2B and B2C hybrid, focusing on hospitals, surgeons, and patients. An aging global population serves as a long-term tailwind, driving consistent demand for its medical technology and specialized pharmaceutical treatments. This demographic shift ensures a steady pipeline of patients requiring chronic care, which supports the company's long-term revenue stability.

Global Supply & Exchange risks:

With a massive international footprint, JNJ is exposed to currency volatility, where a strong dollar can compress reported earnings from overseas markets. The company manages complex global supply chains for its medical devices and drugs, making it susceptible to trade barriers or logistics disruptions that could impact the timely delivery of critical healthcare supplies.