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Walmart Inc.

WMT • Consumer Defensive • Discount Stores

Financial Health
6 / 10
Economic Moat
Wide Moat
1-Year Target
$105.00

Company Overview

💬 In Plain English

Walmart is the world’s largest retailer, helping millions of people save money on groceries and everyday essentials through its massive network of stores and websites. By using its enormous size to keep prices low, the company remains a dominant force in how the world shops.

Walmart Inc. is a global retail titan that anchors the consumer defensive sector through its vast network of supercenters, discount stores, and the Sam’s Club warehouse chain. The company generates revenue primarily through high-volume sales of groceries and general merchandise, leveraging its massive scale to exert significant bargaining power over suppliers and maintain a cost-leadership strategy. This scale creates a wide economic moat—a durable competitive advantage that protects its market share against rivals like Amazon and Costco. While physical retail remains its foundation, Walmart is aggressively transitioning into an omnichannel powerhouse by integrating AI-driven inventory management and automated supply chains to bridge the gap between in-store shopping and digital delivery. By focusing on digital transformation and health-tech services, Walmart is positioning itself to capture evolving consumer habits, ensuring its long-term relevance in an increasingly digital and automated global retail landscape.

Investment Grade

4 /10
Outperform
Risk: Moderate

Grade Scale: 1 (Best / Green) to 10 (Weakest / Red)

Analysis Profile

Outer edge = stronger. The six pillars behind the grade above.

Executive Synthesis

💬 In Plain English

Walmart is a massive, reliable retail giant that is currently priced as if it were growing much faster than it actually is. While the company remains a stable powerhouse, the current stock price is high relative to its actual earnings, leaving little room for error if the business hits a bump in the road.

Walmart functions as a quintessential retail stalwart, leveraging its massive physical footprint and supply chain efficiency to maintain defensive market dominance. However, a critical tension exists between its operational stability and its current market valuation. While the company generates consistent revenue, its thin operating margins—hovering around 4%—and a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.00 create a fragile foundation for such a premium P/E multiple. The current valuation, exceeding 38x earnings, suggests the market is pricing in aggressive growth that is not supported by the company's historical earnings power or current liquidity ratios, which show a current ratio below 1.0. Macroeconomic pressures, including inflationary impacts on consumer discretionary spending, directly challenge these thin margins, as the company must balance competitive pricing with rising operational costs. The technical landscape reflects this disconnect, with the stock trading in a bearish moving average alignment and struggling to find momentum. The ultimate thesis hinges on whether Walmart can successfully pivot its digital and e-commerce segments to expand margins significantly; without this, the current valuation remains disconnected from the underlying fundamental reality of a mature, low-growth retail entity.

Forecast Confidence
75%
Primary Moat Engine
Wide Moat

Price Targets & Range

Current Price: $112.21
1-Month Outlook: Direction: Neutral to slightly bearish. Volatility: Moderate, likely oscillating between $108 and $118.
3-Month Outlook: Direction: Bearish bias. Volatility: Elevated as the market reconciles the high P/E valuation with upcoming earnings reports.
1-Year Targets:
High $125.00
Median $105.00
Low $92.00

Automated Analysis & Hypothetical Scenarios

⚡ Short-term Volatility Profile

The stock currently resides within a bearish technical structure with the MACD below the signal line. Support is identified near the $108 Bollinger Band floor, while resistance persists at the $123 upper band. Momentum indicators like the RSI suggest a neutral state, indicating potential for sideways consolidation.

📊 Mid-term Position Profile

The trend remains structurally weak with the price below the 60-day moving average. A sustained move above the $120 level would be required to shift the momentum profile. Conversely, a breach of the $100 support threshold would signal a potential retest of 52-week lows.

💎 Long-term Value Profile

Long-term positioning is defined by the relationship between the current P/E of 38.78 and the intrinsic value estimate of $75-$80. Valuation compression toward historical norms remains the primary structural condition. Success depends on the company's ability to improve operating margins beyond the 4% threshold over a multi-year horizon.

An Analyst's First Look

Five numbers professional analysts usually check before anything else. Tap a card to jump to that line in the tables below.

💬 What Stands Out Here

The tables below also show top-tier ratings for Net Income Growth Rate (YoY %) — strengths worth noticing.

Earnings vs. Analyst Estimates

Grew revenue year over year in 8 of 8 recent quarters (growth swung by about 1 points quarter to quarter); beat consensus in 7 of 8, surprises narrowing.

A quick read on how consistently recent quarters grew and how often reported results cleared analyst consensus — a look back at the track record, not a forecast.

Next scheduled earnings report: 2026-08-20

2024 Q3 Beat +3.1%
2024 Q4 Beat +9.4%
2025 Q1 Beat +2.2%
2025 Q2 Beat +6.1%
2025 Q3 Miss -7.2%
2025 Q4 Beat +3.2%
2026 Q1 Beat +1.8%
2026 Q2 Beat +0.2%

Each chip is one reported quarter: whether earnings per share came in above ("Beat"), below ("Miss"), or in line with the average analyst estimate at the time, and by what percentage. This is a historical record of past reports, not an indicator of future results.

Financial Statement Vertical Analysis (3-Year Ratio Summary)

Calculates structural allocation and relative weights. Balance Sheet items are scaled against Total Assets; Income Statement items are scaled against Total Revenues.

Show Quarters:
Financial Parameter 2023 Q3 ($M) 2023 Q4 ($M) 2024 Q1 ($M) 2024 Q2 ($M) 2024 Q3 ($M) 2024 Q4 ($M) 2025 Q1 ($M) 2025 Q2 ($M) 2025 Q3 ($M) 2025 Q4 ($M) 2026 Q1 ($M) 2026 Q2 ($M) Health Rating Trend
Total Revenue? 161,632.0 160,804.0 173,388.0 161,508.0 169,335.0 169,588.0 180,554.0 165,609.0 177,402.0 179,496.0 190,656.0 177,751.0 Tier 1 (Outstanding)
Operating Income? 7,316.0 (4.5%) 6,202.0 (3.9%) 7,254.0 (4.2%) 6,841.0 (4.2%) 7,940.0 (4.7%) 6,708.0 (4.0%) 7,859.0 (4.4%) 7,135.0 (4.3%) 7,286.0 (4.1%) 6,696.0 (3.7%) 8,708.0 (4.6%) 7,493.0 (4.2%) Tier 7 (Caution)
Net Income?Key 7,891.0 (4.9%) 453.0 (0.3%) 5,494.0 (3.2%) 5,104.0 (3.2%) 4,501.0 (2.7%) 4,577.0 (2.7%) 5,254.0 (2.9%) 4,487.0 (2.7%) 7,026.0 (4.0%) 6,143.0 (3.4%) 4,237.0 (2.2%) 5,650.0 (3.2%) Tier 6 (Fair)
Total Assets? 255,121.0 259,174.0 252,399.0 254,054.0 254,440.0 263,399.0 260,823.0 262,372.0 270,837.0 288,655.0 284,668.0 289,607.0 Tier 1 (Outstanding)
Total Liabilities? 169,562.0 (66.5%) 173,363.0 (66.9%) 161,828.0 (64.1%) 165,764.0 (65.2%) 163,668.0 (64.3%) 168,934.0 (64.1%) 163,131.0 (62.5%) 171,724.0 (65.5%) 173,980.0 (64.2%) 186,143.0 (64.5%) 178,488.0 (62.7%) 188,632.0 (65.1%) Tier 6 (Fair)
Total Equity? 79,556.0 (31.2%) 79,456.0 (30.7%) 83,861.0 (33.2%) 81,293.0 (32.0%) 84,423.0 (33.2%) 88,108.0 (33.5%) 91,013.0 (34.9%) 83,793.0 (31.9%) 90,110.0 (33.3%) 96,094.0 (33.3%) 99,617.0 (35.0%) 94,330.0 (32.6%) Tier 6 (Fair)
Swipe → to see more quarters

Key Financial Ratio Categorization

Show Quarters:
Ratio Category Metric 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2026 Q1 2026 Q2 Health Rating Trend
Profitability ROE (%)?Key 9.92 0.57 6.55 6.28 5.33 5.19 5.77 5.35 7.80 6.39 4.25 5.99 Tier 6 (Fair)
ROA (%)? 3.09 0.17 2.18 2.01 1.77 1.74 2.01 1.71 2.59 2.13 1.49 1.95 Tier 7 (Caution)
Operating Margin (%)?Key 4.53 3.86 4.18 4.24 4.69 3.96 4.35 4.31 4.11 3.73 4.57 4.22 Tier 6 (Fair)
Stability Debt-to-Equity?Key 2.13 2.18 1.93 2.04 1.94 1.92 1.79 2.05 1.93 1.94 1.79 2.00 Tier 7 (Caution)
Current Ratio? 0.83 0.85 0.83 0.80 0.80 0.85 0.82 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.77 Tier 6 (Fair)
Growth Revenue Growth Rate (YoY %)?Key N/A N/A N/A N/A 4.77 5.46 4.13 4.22 4.23 4.34 4.73 5.87 Tier 5 (Moderate)
Net Income Growth Rate (YoY %)? N/A N/A N/A N/A -42.96 910.38 -4.37 -0.65 37.24 16.44 12.64 22.51 Tier 2 (Excellent)
Activity Total Asset Turnover? 0.63 0.62 0.69 0.64 0.67 0.64 0.69 0.63 0.66 0.62 0.67 0.61 Tier 5 (Moderate)
Valuation (Current) P/E Ratio (Trailing)? 38.78 Tier 6 (Fair)
P/B Ratio? 9.48 Tier 7 (Caution)
EV/EBITDA? 19.87 Tier 5 (Moderate)
Trailing EPS ($)? 2.89 Tier 3 (Strong)
Swipe → to see more quarters

Business quality at a glance

💬 In Plain English

A quick read on how good the business is underneath the share price: how much of each sale it keeps, how much cash it turns that into, how well it earns on the money invested, and how comfortably it carries its debt. Each figure is on a trailing-twelve-month basis, with the trend across recent quarters.

Metric TTM Health Rating Trend
Gross margin? 25.0% Tier 5 (Moderate)
Return on invested capital (ROIC)? 15.1% Tier 3 (Strong)
Free cash flow margin? 1.7% Tier 7 (Caution)
FCF conversion? 54.4% Tier 5 (Moderate)
Interest coverage? 10.6× Tier 3 (Strong)
Net debt / EBITDA? 1.3× Tier 4 (Good)

Trailing-twelve-month figures from reported financials, shown for education, not as advice. A metric is omitted when the underlying data isn't available.

Fundamental Momentum Score

💬 In Plain English

A nine-point checklist of whether the fundamentals are getting stronger or weaker year over year — grouped into profitability, leverage and liquidity, and efficiency. Each dot is one test the company either passes or fails; more filled dots means more of the checks are trending the right way. It describes momentum in the reported numbers, not a signal to act on.

7/9

7/9 — improving quality across profitability

  • Positive net income Net income is positive.
  • Positive operating cash flow Operating cash flow is positive.
  • Return on assets improving Return on assets rose to 8.0% from 7.2%.
  • Cash flow exceeds net income Operating cash flow exceeds net income (earnings backed by cash).
  • Long-term debt ratio falling No long-term debt on the balance sheet.
  • Current ratio rising Current ratio did not rise.
  • No share dilution Share count fell 0.5% over the past year.
  • Gross margin rising Gross margin widened to 25.0% from 24.9%.
  • Asset turnover rising Asset turnover did not rise.

Each check compares the latest period with a year earlier using reported financials, and is shown for education, not as advice. A check whose data is missing counts as not passed.

🛡️ Financial Health Rating System (Tiers 1-10)

Each financial metric is evaluated dynamically against standard industry benchmarks, mapping from Tier 1 (Outstanding) to Tier 10 (Critical Risk).

Tier 1 - 3: Strong / Outstanding
Excellent financial structure, high profitability, or extremely conservative debt cushion.
Tier 4 - 7: Moderate / Fair
Average operating efficiency, normal leverage ratios, or steady but low growth rates.
Tier 8 - 10: Weak / High Risk
Negative margins, excessive financial leverage, or critical short-term liquidity bottlenecks.

Product & Service Quality

💬 In Plain English

Walmart remains a retail giant that balances massive sales with thin profit margins. While the company faces pressure from high debt and fluctuating earnings, its ability to move huge volumes of goods keeps it a central player in the global economy.

Ecosystem Summary: Walmart operates through three primary segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam’s Club. Revenue is driven by groceries, general merchandise, and health services, with grocery sales consistently serving as the primary anchor for customer traffic.

Customer Feedback: Brand loyalty is high, driven by the convenience of one-stop shopping and competitive pricing. Customer retention is bolstered by the Walmart+ membership program, which integrates delivery services and digital perks to keep shoppers engaged within the ecosystem.

Competitor Grid: Walmart competes primarily against Amazon in e-commerce and Target in general retail. It differentiates itself through a superior physical footprint and a stronger focus on grocery essentials, which provides a defensive advantage during periods of economic uncertainty.

Pipeline Strategy: Future growth centers on digital transformation, including automated supply chains and AI-driven inventory management. Continued investment in omnichannel retail and health-tech services positions the company to adapt to evolving consumer habits and long-term digital shopping trends.

Economic Moat Strength

💬 In Plain English

Walmart retains a massive competitive advantage because its sheer size allows it to keep prices lower than almost anyone else. This dominance makes it a go-to destination for shoppers, creating a powerful cycle that is very difficult for competitors to break.

Moat Rating: Wide Moat

Walmart possesses a Wide Moat. Its scale, logistics infrastructure, and brand equity provide a durable advantage that is expected to persist for the next 10-20 years. Despite the rise of e-commerce, Walmart’s hybrid model of physical stores and digital delivery ensures it remains a dominant force in the global retail landscape.

Moat Sub-elements:

🌐 Network Effects: While not a traditional tech network, Walmart benefits from a 'data network effect.' As more customers shop across its physical stores and digital platforms, Walmart gathers more data to optimize inventory and logistics. This makes the shopping experience more efficient and personalized, further cementing its position as the primary retail hub for millions of households.
🛡️ Switching Costs: Switching costs are relatively low for individual items, but high for the overall shopping experience. Walmart’s integration of grocery, pharmacy, and general merchandise under one roof creates a 'one-stop shop' convenience. Once a customer relies on Walmart’s ecosystem for their weekly needs, the time and effort required to replicate that convenience elsewhere create a psychological and practical barrier.
⚖️ Economies of Scale: Walmart’s primary moat is its legendary cost leadership. By accumulation goods in massive quantities, it commands the lowest prices from suppliers, which it passes on to customers. This creates a virtuous cycle: lower prices drive higher traffic, which leads to even greater accumulation power. This efficiency is nearly impossible for smaller retailers to replicate.
📜 Intellectual Property & Brand: Walmart’s brand is synonymous with value, serving as a powerful intangible asset. Beyond the brand, its proprietary supply chain technology and logistics software are industry-leading. These systems allow for real-time inventory tracking and distribution, which are critical for maintaining low costs and high availability, acting as a significant barrier to entry for smaller competitors.

Industry & SWOT Analysis

💬 In Plain English

Walmart remains a retail giant that uses its massive size to keep prices low for shoppers. While the company faces typical ups and downs in profit, its ability to reduction everyday essentials ensures it stays relevant even when the economy gets tough.

Definition: Walmart operates within the Consumer Defensive sector, specifically the Discount Stores industry. Its business model focuses on high-volume retail, wholesale, and e-commerce, providing groceries, consumables, and general merchandise through physical stores and digital platforms.

Market Positioning: Walmart is a global retail leader with a dominant market share in the U.S. It competes against major retailers like Amazon, Target, and Costco. Its differentiation lies in its vast physical footprint and integrated omnichannel shopping experience.

💪 Strengths
  • Massive global physical footprint
  • Strong brand recognition
  • Efficient supply chain management
⚠️ Weaknesses
  • Thin operating margins
  • High debt-to-equity ratio
  • Low current ratio
🚀 Opportunities
  • Expansion of e-commerce platforms
  • Growth in membership-based warehouse clubs
  • Increased digital service integration
🔥 Threats
  • Intense competition from e-commerce giants
  • Economic pressure on consumer spending
  • Rising operational and labor costs

Management & Corporate Governance

💬 In Plain English

Walmart is a massive, steady retail giant that focuses on keeping prices low for shoppers. While the company is currently managing thin profit margins and high debt, it remains a dominant force by constantly evolving its stores and online shopping services.

Background & Experience: Walmart is led by CEO Doug McMillon, a career veteran who started as an hourly associate. This deep institutional knowledge fosters a culture of operational discipline and long-term stability that is highly respected across the retail industry.

Capital Allocation: Management maintains a razor-thin operating margin, typical of high-volume retail. Capital allocation is focused on infrastructure and supply chain efficiency, though the current debt-to-equity ratio suggests a reliance on leverage to fund ongoing operations and expansion.

Innovation Adaptability: The company has successfully pivoted toward a hybrid model, blending its massive physical footprint with robust e-commerce and delivery capabilities. This adaptability allows Walmart to compete effectively against digital-native retailers while leveraging its local store presence.

Governance Risk: The primary risk involves the Walton family's significant influence, which can sometimes lead to concentrated control. Additionally, the high volume of recent insider sales warrants monitoring to ensure that executive incentives remain aligned with long-term shareholder interests.

Shareholder Alignment (Lynch & Munger): Shareholder alignment is moderate, evidenced by consistent share count reduction and dividend payments. However, the lack of recent insider accumulation and the high volume of insider sales suggest that management may view the current valuation as fully priced.

Insider Trading & Capital Allocation (Buybacks)

TTM Stock Repurchases
$5.61B
Buyback Yield (TTM)
0.63%
Total Shareholder Yield
0.63%
1-Year Share Contraction
+0.52%
6-Month Net Insider Activity
-12,199,075
Insider Ownership %?
N/A

👥 Latest Tracked Insider Transactions

Date Insider / Position Type Shares Value ($)
2026-06-30
Penner Gregory Boyd
director
A-Award 502 $56,857
2026-06-30
STEPHENSON RANDALL L
director
A-Award 419 $47,456
2026-06-30
Walton Steuart L
director
A-Award 309 $34,997
2026-06-30
Mehrotra Shishir
director
A-Award 254 $28,768
2026-06-30
Friar Sarah
director
A-Award 309 $34,997
2026-06-30
Moritz Robert Edward Jr.
director
A-Award 276 $31,260
2026-06-30
Conde Cesar
director
A-Award 254 $28,768
2026-06-30
Harris Carla A
director
A-Award 155 $17,555
2026-06-30
MAYER MARISSA A
director
A-Award 254 $28,768
2026-07-01
Bartlett Daniel J
officer: Executive Vice President
S-Sale 3,775 $413,891
Alignment Quality Grade
5/10
Neutral Alignment (Quiet Transactions & Stable Share Count)
📈 Quarterly Shares Outstanding Trend

Valuation & Margin of Safety Analysis

💬 In Plain English

Walmart is currently trading at a high price relative to its recent earnings, making it look expensive compared to similar companies. While it remains a massive, stable business, the current stock price suggests investors are paying a premium for its future growth potential.

Valuation Verdict: The stock is Overvalued. It trades at a substantial premium to its peer group, with a P/E ratio more than double the industry median. Given the thin operating margins and high debt-to-equity levels, the current market valuation appears disconnected from the company's underlying fundamental performance.

💎 Estimated Intrinsic Value: Using an Earnings Power Value (EPV) approach, which assumes no future growth to be conservative, we normalize operating income at roughly $28B annually. After adjusting for taxes and debt, the intrinsic value is estimated at approximately $75-$80 per share. This suggests the current market price significantly exceeds the company's baseline earnings power.
🛡️ Margin of Safety Cushion: There is currently no margin of safety; in fact, the stock trades at a premium of roughly 40-50% over the estimated intrinsic value. A margin of safety—the gap between a stock's price and its true worth—is meant to protect investors from errors, but here the price leaves no room for such protection.
📊 John Neff Terminal Relationship: Assuming a conservative 5% long-term earnings growth rate and a ~1.5% dividend yield, the total return is 6.5%. Dividing this by the P/E of 38.78 results in a ratio of 0.17. Since this is well below the 1.0 threshold Neff preferred, the stock does not qualify as a bargain under his criteria.
📈 PEG Ratio (P/E relative to Growth): With a P/E of 38.78 and an inconsistent growth rate, the PEG ratio is significantly above 1.0. A PEG ratio compares price to growth, and a value over 1.0 generally signals that the stock is overvalued relative to the speed at which the company is actually growing its profits.

Stock Categorization Framework

💬 In Plain English

Walmart is a massive, steady retail giant that provides essential goods to millions of people. While its growth is modest, its sheer size and importance to daily shopping make it a reliable, long-term fixture in the economy.

Framework Archetype:
  • Slow Growers Large, mature companies that grow slowly but often pay steady dividends.
  • Stalwarts Big, established firms with dependable, moderate growth. this stock
  • Fast Growers Smaller, aggressive companies expanding quickly — higher risk and reward.
  • Cyclicals Sales and profits rise and fall with the broader economy.
  • Turnarounds Troubled companies that could recover — or stumble further.
  • Asset Plays Assets (cash, property) may be worth more than the share price suggests.
🔍 Classification Rationale: Walmart exhibits the classic characteristics of a Stalwart: massive scale, consistent revenue generation, and a defensive market position. Its low operating margins (around 4%) and steady, albeit slow, growth trajectory align with a mature company that prioritizes market share and operational efficiency over rapid, speculative expansion.
🎯 Analysis Focus Area: Analysis should prioritize dividend sustainability, the consistency of free cash flow, and the P/E ratio relative to historical norms. Monitoring the 'moat'—the competitive advantage that protects its market share—is essential, as is tracking how the company manages its thin profit margins against inflationary pressures.
📊 Structural Weakness Indicators: The thesis weakens if the P/E ratio expands significantly beyond historical averages while earnings growth stagnates or turns negative. Additionally, a structural risk emerges if the debt-to-equity ratio exceeds 2.5x or if the current ratio drops consistently below 0.70, indicating potential liquidity stress in meeting short-term obligations.

Asymmetric Risk-Reward Analysis

💬 In Plain English

Walmart is a massive, reliable retailer that reduces everyday essentials, making it a steady performer even when the economy is tough. While the company is currently priced at a premium, its sheer size and constant demand for groceries provide a solid foundation for long-term stability.

Asymmetry Verdict:
  • Highly Favorable Asymmetry Potential upside looks much larger than the potential downside.
  • Moderate Asymmetry A reasonable balance — some cushion, with upside roughly in line with risk.
  • Symmetric / High Risk Downside risk is as large as, or larger than, the possible reward. this stock
🔍 Business Simplicity: The business model is highly transparent and straightforward, focusing on high-volume retail, wholesale, and e-commerce. Its operations are well-defined, predictable, and deeply integrated into global consumer supply chains, minimizing speculative complexity.
⛈️ Industry Distress Check: The industry is not distressed; it is a mature, stable sector. Walmart maintains a dominant market position, and current valuations reflect a premium rather than a deep-bargain scenario, indicating the market has already priced in its operational viability.
🛡️ Downside Protection Cushion: Structural buffers include a massive, diversified physical footprint and consistent revenue generation from essential goods. However, the current ratio of 0.77 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.00 suggest limited liquidity flexibility, meaning the downside is protected more by operational scale than by cash-heavy balance sheet liquidity.
🚀 Upside Catalyst Potential: Upside is driven by potential margin expansion through e-commerce efficiency and digital service integration like Flipkart and PhonePe. Catalysts include sustained revenue growth in the Sam's Club division and the ability to leverage its massive scale to improve operating margins beyond the current 4% range.

How it compares to peers

💬 In Plain English

The same company set side by side with close competitors, so its size and valuation have context.

Company Market cap P/EP/S
Walmart Inc. This stock
WMT
$892.98B 38.81.2
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.
BJ
$10.93B 19.10.5
Costco Wholesale Corporation
COST
$404.88B 45.81.4
Dollar General Corporation
DG
$25.53B 16.30.6
Dollar Tree, Inc.
DLTR
$23.24B 18.11.2
Peer median 18.60.9
vs. peers +108.5%+39.2%

P/E (price-to-earnings) is the share price divided by earnings per share — a rough gauge of how expensive a stock is relative to its profits.

The "vs. peers" row shows how the company's valuation multiples compare to the peer median — green is a discount (cheaper than peers), red a premium (more expensive).

Cheap or dear vs. its own history

💬 In Plain English

The peer table shows how the company is priced against rivals; this shows how it is priced against its own past. Each bar places today's multiple within the range it has traded over the window below — near the left is cheap for this stock, near the right is dear.

P/E 38.8 — 56th percentile of its own 2-yr range

25.2 around its typical level 45.6

EV/EBITDA 19.9 — 56th percentile of its own 2-yr range

13.0 around its typical level 23.2

Middle-half range (25th–75th percentile)

Each quarter-end multiple pairs that quarter's trailing-twelve-month earnings or EBITDA with the period-end price; the marker is where today's multiple sits within that history. Shown for education, not as advice, and only when enough history is available.

Dividend

0.84% Dividend yield
$0.94 Annual dividend / share
32.5% Payout ratio
15 Years of payments
-4.0% Dividend growth (annualized)
Quarterly Pays

Annual dividend as a percentage of the share price — your cash return from dividends alone. Share of earnings paid out as dividends. Below ~60% generally leaves room to keep paying and growing it.

Interactive Fair Value Calculator

💬 In Plain English

Drag the sliders to set your own assumptions and watch the estimated fair value update live. Fair value is what the business could be worth based on the cash it generates — a discounted cash flow (DCF) estimate, not a price target.

How fast you expect free cash flow to grow each year.
Your required annual return — higher means you demand a bigger margin, lowering fair value.
The modest perpetual growth rate after year 10.
Estimated fair value / share $24.10 Above your fair value
Current price: $112.21

At today's price the market is implying ~23.5%/yr free-cash-flow growth for 10 years; the company's trailing free-cash-flow growth was -7.1%.

A simplified, transparent model for learning — it isn't financial advice, and small input changes move the result a lot. That sensitivity is the point: it shows how much a valuation depends on assumptions.

Technical Read (Synthesized Signal)

💬 In Plain English

Walmart’s stock is currently in a period of weakness, showing a downward trend as it struggles to regain momentum. Because the price is drifting without clear conviction from traders, the stock is likely to remain stuck in this quiet, uncertain phase until a new catalyst emerges.

Bearish structural alignment with stagnant momentum and low-conviction consolidation.

Walmart exhibits a persistent bearish structure defined by a stacked moving average sequence that reflects sustained downward pressure. The alignment of the MACD below the zero line confirms a lack of bullish momentum, while the RSI remains in a neutral zone, suggesting the current decline lacks extreme exhaustion. Price action is currently contained within the Bollinger Bands, indicating a period of consolidation rather than a volatile breakout. The decoupling of price and volume suggests a lack of institutional participation, pointing toward a phase of retail-driven stagnation. Given the current positioning relative to the 52-week range, the stock remains trapped beneath key resistance levels. This configuration implies a structural drift where the lack of volume confirmation prevents a decisive shift in the prevailing trend.

Market Structure

52-Week Range Position

44% (-17.0% from high)

Trailing Returns (1M / 3M / 6M)

-6.4% -11.8% -1.9%

Volatility Regime

Normal Volatility

MA Extension (vs SMA20 / SMA60)

-3.4% -8.5%

Historical Technical Price Chart (120-Day Daily view)

Moving Average Alignment

Arrange Structure: Strong Bearish Arrangement (MA5 < MA20 < MA60)

Crossover Signals: Neutral (No recent crossover)

SMA(5): $111.87 • SMA(20): $116.12 • SMA(60): $122.62

Technical Indicator Oscillators

RSI (14-day): Neutral (36.1)

MACD Line: Bearish (MACD Line is below Signal Line and below 0)

Bollinger Bands: Upper $123.97 • Mid $116.12 • Lower $108.27

Volume Trend & Price-Volume Relationship

Volume Trend Profile: Steady Volume (10-day volume is within 20% of the 30-day average)

Price-Volume Correlation: Weak/No Correlation (-0.03): Price changes and volume fluctuations are decoupled, indicating retail consolidation.

Recent Volume Anomalies (Volume spikes > 2.5x 20-Day Average)

Trigger Date Spike Volume Multiplier Close Price Price Change (%)
2026-05-21 53,006,600 2.87x $121.34 -7.27%
2026-03-20 57,545,642 2.62x $119.02 -1.71%
2026-01-16 415,144,621 9.73x $119.70 +0.42%
2025-11-20 50,375,920 2.91x $107.11 +6.46%
2025-08-21 51,825,100 3.01x $97.96 -4.49%

Sentiment Trends & News

💬 In Plain English

Walmart's stock is currently cooling off after a recent decline, but many analysts view this as a temporary dip for a stable company. The business remains a leader in retail, and experts see its focus on technology and wealthy shoppers as signs of long-term strength.

Integrated Sentiment Verdict: The overall tone is cautiously bullish. While the stock price has faced downward pressure, financial commentators view the current valuation as an attractive entry point for long-term investors seeking stability.

Market psychology is currently cautious due to technical weakness, yet fundamentally optimistic. The stock is expected to consolidate near current levels as investors wait for clearer signals regarding consumer health and macroeconomic stability.

Market Psychology Breakdown:

  • News headlines sentiment: The overall tone is cautiously bullish. While the stock price has faced downward pressure, financial commentators view the current valuation as an attractive entry point for long-term investors seeking stability.
  • Retail forum buzz: Retail sentiment is mixed but generally supportive of the company's long-term fundamentals. Investors are debating whether the current price weakness is a accumulation opportunity or a signal of broader consumer spending fatigue.
  • Key debate themes: Discussions center on the 'Amazon vs. Walmart' rivalry and the effectiveness of Walmart's AI integration. Participants are also closely monitoring how the company's shift toward wealthier demographics will impact future profit margins.

Recent Tracked News Headlines:

Macroeconomics & Economic Cycle

💬 In Plain English

Walmart is a massive retailer that stays steady even when the economy gets bumpy because people always need groceries and essentials. While the stock price currently reflects high expectations, the company’s ability to keep costs low helps it thrive regardless of whether shoppers are feeling wealthy or pinching pennies.

Economic Cycle alignment: Walmart is a classic defensive stock, meaning it typically performs well regardless of the economic cycle because demand for groceries and household staples remains constant. During recessions, it often sees increased traffic as shoppers trade down from premium retailers. In expansionary phases, its scale and efficiency allow it to capture market share through competitive pricing.

Impact of Macro Indicators:

GDP, Inflation, Interest Rates: As a B2C retailer, Walmart benefits from stable employment, which sustains consumer spending. Inflation impacts the company by shifting shoppers toward its value-oriented grocery segment. With roughly $74B in total debt, Walmart manages interest expenses effectively; its scale allows it to absorb rate fluctuations, while its massive cash flow ensures it remains insulated from tighter credit conditions.

Policy & Regulations:

Walmart faces significant regulatory scrutiny regarding labor practices and minimum wage legislation, which directly impacts its massive workforce costs. Fiscal policies, such as changes to SNAP benefits or tax credits, directly influence the accumulation power of its core customer base. Additionally, antitrust oversight regarding its e-commerce expansion remains a persistent regulatory hurdle for the company.

Social & Demographic tailwinds:

Walmart serves a broad B2C demographic, focusing on value-conscious households. As consumer habits shift toward omnichannel shopping—blending physical store visits with digital delivery—Walmart’s massive footprint acts as a logistical advantage. Its ability to provide affordable essentials makes it a preferred destination for aging populations and lower-to-middle-income families during periods of economic tightening.

Global Supply & Exchange risks:

Walmart’s global supply chain is sensitive to international trade regulations and shipping costs. Fluctuations in exchange rates impact the profitability of its international divisions. By maintaining a diverse, multi-national sourcing strategy, the company mitigates risks associated with regional trade disputes, though it remains vulnerable to global logistics disruptions that can inflate inventory costs.